Rubio is on pace for zero wins in the first 15 states, but denial and spin reign
A saying often wrongly attributed to Sherlock Holmes is that when you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. Marco Rubio’s chances of winning the GOP nomination are already highly improbable and are quickly approaching the realm of impossibility, but you wouldn’t be able to tell that from the spin coming from mainstream media and the Republican Establishment.
Are they in denial? Is there an agenda to try to take this to a brokered convention? Are they simply spinning it this way to work Rubio into being Donald Trump’s Vice President? Whatever the reason, the DC spin machine is erroneously painting Rubio as the guy that can stop Trump. The reality is that Ted Cruz is the only candidate with a path to stopping Trump, but the narrative that’s being painted about Rubio is conspicuously trying to drown out the truth.
The upcoming SEC Primaries offer next to zero chance for a Rubio win. He’ll wake up Wednesday morning with 15 consecutive losses. Cruz, by contrast, will have a minimum of three primary/caucus wins after Super Tuesday and could have as many as eight. Why is mainstream media, the Republican Establishment, and the Rubio camp so dedicated to keep this from happening?
To understand this, we have to see what all is at stake for each interested party.
- Mainstream Media: Some say they’re opposed to Ted Cruz, but outside of Fox News this doesn’t seem to be a tenable excuse. On the other hand, some rightly admit that they love Trump and Cruz is realistically the only one who can beat him, so there’s at least a little credence that can be given to the theory of the mainstream media supporting Rubio to help Trump.
- Republican Establishment: The hatred by the Establishment towards Cruz isn’t even debatable. They would rather see Trump than Cruz and if Rubio has even the remotest chance of beating Trump, they’ll take it over a superior and logical move to support Cruz. Trump is an embarrassment to the Republican Establishment but Cruz represents an existential threat much like Ronald Reagan did in 1980. They’re trying to take down Cruz almost as hard as they tried to take down Reagan.
- Rubio Camp: Their only realistic shot at a brokered convention nomination or the consolation prize of a Vice Presidency is to move Cruz out of the way. They see Cruz as the person standing in their way from a second place finish and even if they have no hope for a 1st place finish, their agenda plays better without Cruz.
The speculation has already begun.
— JD Rucker (@0boy) February 24, 2016
As the SEC Primary approaches, the three-man race is actually a two-entity race. The nomination will either go to Cruz or Trump. Rubio is playing for the consolation prize of VP for the winner and he’s betting heavily on Trump. That’s why he, mainstream media, and the Republican Establishment is attacking Cruz publicly and supporting Trump secretly.